Free Trial

USD/TRY Edges +2.22% Higher W/W as Energy Prices Exert Inflationary Pressures

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.46% higher this morning, broadly in line with early upside in the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +0.62% yesterday and is up +2.24% w/w, having held onto gains above the 14.00 handle yesterday.
  • Spiralling energy and commodity prices continue to exert pressure on Turkey as headline CPI surges to 54.44% in Feb, with analysts forecasting a rise to 60-65% in the coming months – intensifying pressures on the economy.
  • Administrative changes to VAT and customs duties are having little effect thus far and pressure is building on the Erdogan administration to tackle the issues or face increased social-discontent.
  • Support for the opposition has been growing in recent months and the AKP is likely to face a difficult run at the polls in June, provided the election runs fairly.
  • With he Ukraine crisis set to continue until Kyiv is surrounded, followed by a potential siege – TRY remains notably vulnerable to further depreciation and use of reserves by the CBRT/state banks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.1056, Sup2: 14.025, Res1: 14.232, Res2: 14.3109
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.