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USD/TRY Facing Sticky Support Ahead of Biden Meeting, CBRT

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades flat around the open this morning, having failed to hold below 8.60 in yesterday's session.
  • USD/TRY is now -1.68% off its highs on Friday, but facing sticky psychological support in the 8.50-8.60 zone ahead of next week's Biden summit and CBRT meeting.
  • Markets will be keeping a close eye on comments from both sides ahead of Monday's meeting, with indications suggesting the US wants to make some sort of deal over the S-400s, but Turkey remains resolute in its red lines over not disposing of them.
  • Erdogan will likely recognize his weaker position with support dwindling at home on economic woes and try to be as amiable as possible in the meeting. Any derailment of positive sentiment towards the meeting will likely weigh negatively on TRY.
  • Meanwhile, CBRT Gov Kavcioglu will try to win back some lost credibility following Erdogan's dovish comments by delivering a market stabilizer in the form of a hold and maintained guidance RE rates above inflation.
  • However, markets have set a high bar for any material impact of 'hawkish' rhetoric in the absence of tangible action and will continue to partially price in premature cuts in the near-term.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.5805, Sup2: 8.5419, Res1: 8.6399, Res2: 8.6927
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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