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USD/TRY Higher After Stimulus/Fed Developments; Locals Mull CBRT Inflation Report

  • USD/TRY higher at the open after pulling lower following dovish tapering and inflation commentary from the Fed, coupled with a $1.9tn stimulus package from Biden, which pushed UST's & USD around.
  • DXY more buoyant at the open after rejecting 90.20.
  • May see choppy week-end trading today as markets mull US-side developments for signs of risks to EM positioning going forward.
  • Lower CBRT 12-month inflation projection should bolster carry in TRY assets, albeit only slightly.
  • However, a year-end estimate of >8.00 for USD/TRY may rattle optimism and temper the CBRT's de-dollarisation push.
  • In the near-term USD/TRY short bias should still hold, with sell-side looking to re-allocate to shorts around 7.4117.
  • 200dma holding at 7.3509 and has been tested 3 times, with long tails emerging on daily candles - indicating selling pressure into the rallies.
  • Close below this level opens up a more comprehensive move lower towards the 7.00 handle.
  • Intraday sup1: 7.3509, sup2: 7.3109, Res1: 7.4117, Res2: 7.4679
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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