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USD/TRY Hovers Just Shy of 14.00 as Commodity Shortages Weigh on the Lira

  • USD/TRY trades +0.39% higher this morning, trading mostly on its own as the Ukraine crisis continued to unfold.
  • Price action held within the 13.73-14.1045 range after pulling back sharply from above 14.00 on the back of sustained selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • Experts continue to cite inflation risks coming from the Ukraine crisis as oil/natgas prices remain elevated and wheat shortages threaten to drive scarcity in key product.
  • A de-escalation seems unlikely at this point, but the focus will be on Ukrainian President Zelensky’s response to the talks held yesterday with Russia in mapping global risk sentiment and the trajectory of the crisis.
  • Markit PMI came out marginally softer this morning, but managed to hold ground above the 50 mark at 50.4.
  • Analysts still expect the CBRT and state banks to be active around the 14.00 level to keep their promises of a stable lira, however, this should continue to deepen the bank’s negative net reserve position.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.8071, Sup2: 13.7538, Res1: 13.9631, Res2: 14.025
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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