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Free AccessUSD/TRY Looking Heavy on the Tech Front, But UNSC Risks Could Derail the TRY Rally
- USD/TRY trades -0.10% lower at the open, tracking early weakness in the BBDXY.
- Once again, 8.60 resistance proved sticky in yesterday's session with the cross falling towards the end of the session as risk appetite across global markets improved.
- International condemnation for Erdogan's partial re-opening of Varosha escalated overnight with comments from the US, UK and UNSC pointing to renewed clashes with the West.
- The UNSC statement due today will be monitored for signs of punitive measures/sanctions – but it's hard to tell how forceful it will be at this stage.
- Nevertheless, Erdogan is exhibiting a concerning trajectory in terms of a return to aggressive foreign policy that may begin to weigh on TRY sentiment.
- On the international front, we have the ECB meeting today with markets eyeing possible changes to forward guidance and phraseology on its inflation stance.
- USD/TRY price action managed to hold below the 50dma, with the cross looking relatively heavy in technical terms.
- However, 8.50 support remains a key psychological level and comments from the UNSC could largely derail TRY's good run of form since 08 July.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.5419, Sup2: 8.5037, Res1: 8.6064, Res2: 8.6399
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.