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E-MINI S&P (U1): Rebounds From The 50-Day EMA


(U1) A Pause In The Bear Cycle


EGB Supply for W/C Jul 19


ECB Nuances Eyed

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  • USD/TRY trades -0.10% lower at the open, tracking early weakness in the BBDXY.
  • Once again, 8.60 resistance proved sticky in yesterday's session with the cross falling towards the end of the session as risk appetite across global markets improved.
  • International condemnation for Erdogan's partial re-opening of Varosha escalated overnight with comments from the US, UK and UNSC pointing to renewed clashes with the West.
  • The UNSC statement due today will be monitored for signs of punitive measures/sanctions – but it's hard to tell how forceful it will be at this stage.
  • Nevertheless, Erdogan is exhibiting a concerning trajectory in terms of a return to aggressive foreign policy that may begin to weigh on TRY sentiment.
  • On the international front, we have the ECB meeting today with markets eyeing possible changes to forward guidance and phraseology on its inflation stance.
  • USD/TRY price action managed to hold below the 50dma, with the cross looking relatively heavy in technical terms.
  • However, 8.50 support remains a key psychological level and comments from the UNSC could largely derail TRY's good run of form since 08 July.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.5419, Sup2: 8.5037, Res1: 8.6064, Res2: 8.6399