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USD/TRY Retests 9.50 Following the G20, CPI Expected to reach 20.40% Y/Y

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens -0.75% lower, following Erdogan's meetings with Biden at the G20, which Turkey's president classified as "positive."
  • The cross rose +0.68% on Friday to close the week mostly flat after remaining within the 9.40-9.63 lateral range.
  • While the G20 meetings were seemingly filled with amicable overtures on trade and the need for bilateral talks, the key issues still remain unresolved in terms of F-16s/F-35s and missile systems, with the US administration kicking that can down the road.
  • The local focus this week will be on CPI & PPI data, with the former expected to rise in both headline and core – placing the CBRT in a difficult position in terms of continuing its easing cycle into rising CPI headwinds.
  • However, this is unlikely to deter the bank, given its constant classification of the pricing dynamics as "transient."
  • On the international front, we have a swathe of US data alongside the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where QE tapering is set to be announced for mid-Nov and the discussion on inflation closely monitored in the post-meeting statement – which could make for some volatility in EM FX.
  • The bias in USD/TRY continues to be fading TRY strength towards the next CBRT. Intraday Sup1: 9.4867, Sup2: 9.4252, Res1: 9.6349, Res2: 9.7121
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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