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USD/TRY Well Supported Above 8.60 as Markets Eye CPI, PPI Data

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades a fraction higher at the open after pulling back slightly from 8.70 resistance in early trading.
  • The cross continued to slide lower towards the 8.60-8.65 zone las week, which has provided robust support in recent weeks.
  • Today's domestic inflation print will likely be the key price action driver for today with the sell-side expecting a flat or slightly higher print y/y across a variety of institutions, mostly due to base effects.
  • A higher print reduces scope for Erdogan to ease prematurely against unfavourable market conditions without adversely affecting the lira.
  • However, a downside surprise would likely bring forward expectations of premature easing, despite relatively hawkish posturing/assurances from CBRT Gov Kavcioglu in recent weeks.
  • High staff turnover at TUIK does little to inspire confidence in the domestic statistics, however.
  • Beyond CPI today, markets will dial in on 12m expected inflation and current account data on Friday.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.6738, Sup2: 8.6399, Res1: 8.7488, Res2: 8.8008
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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