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Key Support Remains Exposed


Pullback Extends, But Still Looks Corrective in Nature


FED Remains in Play Post-NFP/ISM Data

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USD/TWD Through 32.00, Fresh Highs Back To Early 2017


Spot USD/TWD has broken to fresh cyclical highs today, with the pair breaching the 32.00 level. This is fresh highs back to early 2017. We topped out just above 32.36 then. The 1 month NDF is also above 32.00 (last 32.01) and tracks at a slightly premium to spot (in USD/TWD terms).

  • Vols are tracking higher, the 1 month implied close to 8.50%, very close to recent highs. The 1 month risk reversal is drifting up, last +1.465, but we are below earlier YTD highs above +2.00.
  • Onshore equities are down sharply today, off around 2.0%, the weakest performer within the region. We are quite close to lows from last week that came in just under 12810 (currently around 12865).
  • Offshore investors were net buyers of onshore equities on Friday (+372.2mn), but this only reduced net week outflows back to -$1492.3mn. Note we haven't seen a positive weekly net inflow since the end of July.
  • The data calendar is quiet until export orders print on Thursday.

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