Trial now
USDCAD TECHS

Watching The 50-Day EMA

AUDUSD TECHS

Bearish Focus

MONTH-END EXTENSIONS

Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US

US TSYS

Late Session Selling

EURJPY TECHS

Consolidation Mode

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

  • USD/ZAR trades a fraction firmer at the open, hovering a fraction below 14.60 and tracking price action in the BBDXY.
  • Yesterday's broadly risk-off session hit all high-beta currencies, and ZAR was no exception – snapping the downtrend held since 14 July.
  • While rioting risks have moderated substantially on the larger SANDF presence, police remain on high alert as rumours circulate about a second wave of looting targeting police weapons depots – which will need to be monitored closely as the situation in KZN has not fully stabilised.
  • Beyond this, the verdict on Zuma's corruption case postponement will be handed down today and seems unlikely to succeed.
  • On the covid front, case numbers have moderated significantly but are expected to rise again owing to the super spreader rioting events.
  • Interestingly, markets have priced in a 40% chance of a rate hike on Thursday, which is highly unlikely and could add to a dovish repricing in USD/ZAR post-meeting.
  • Our base case remains for a hold at this meeting and out to 1Q22 in the absence of further upside surprises in inflation in September-November, despite calls for early normalisation around that time among sell-side institutions (in-depth analysis in MNI SARB preview due 0900BST).
  • Intraday Sup1: 14,5113, Sup2: 14.4098, Res1: 14.6583, Res2: 14.7583