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Policy
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Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
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Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
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Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
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Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
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MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
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About Us
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Free AccessUSD/ZAR at Risk of Dovish Reaction as Markets Price in 40% Chance of +25bp Hike This Week
- USD/ZAR trades a fraction firmer at the open, hovering a fraction below 14.60 and tracking price action in the BBDXY.
- Yesterday's broadly risk-off session hit all high-beta currencies, and ZAR was no exception – snapping the downtrend held since 14 July.
- While rioting risks have moderated substantially on the larger SANDF presence, police remain on high alert as rumours circulate about a second wave of looting targeting police weapons depots – which will need to be monitored closely as the situation in KZN has not fully stabilised.
- Beyond this, the verdict on Zuma's corruption case postponement will be handed down today and seems unlikely to succeed.
- On the covid front, case numbers have moderated significantly but are expected to rise again owing to the super spreader rioting events.
- Interestingly, markets have priced in a 40% chance of a rate hike on Thursday, which is highly unlikely and could add to a dovish repricing in USD/ZAR post-meeting.
- Our base case remains for a hold at this meeting and out to 1Q22 in the absence of further upside surprises in inflation in September-November, despite calls for early normalisation around that time among sell-side institutions (in-depth analysis in MNI SARB preview due 0900BST).
- Intraday Sup1: 14,5113, Sup2: 14.4098, Res1: 14.6583, Res2: 14.7583
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.