Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
- USD/ZAR trades a fraction firmer at the open, hovering a fraction below 14.60 and tracking price action in the BBDXY.
- Yesterday's broadly risk-off session hit all high-beta currencies, and ZAR was no exception – snapping the downtrend held since 14 July.
- While rioting risks have moderated substantially on the larger SANDF presence, police remain on high alert as rumours circulate about a second wave of looting targeting police weapons depots – which will need to be monitored closely as the situation in KZN has not fully stabilised.
- Beyond this, the verdict on Zuma's corruption case postponement will be handed down today and seems unlikely to succeed.
- On the covid front, case numbers have moderated significantly but are expected to rise again owing to the super spreader rioting events.
- Interestingly, markets have priced in a 40% chance of a rate hike on Thursday, which is highly unlikely and could add to a dovish repricing in USD/ZAR post-meeting.
- Our base case remains for a hold at this meeting and out to 1Q22 in the absence of further upside surprises in inflation in September-November, despite calls for early normalisation around that time among sell-side institutions (in-depth analysis in MNI SARB preview due 0900BST).
- Intraday Sup1: 14,5113, Sup2: 14.4098, Res1: 14.6583, Res2: 14.7583