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USD/ZAR Choppy as Political Infighting, Hawkish FOMC Minutes Rattle Sentiment

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR seen trading choppily around the open, mirroring price action in USD/CNH somewhat.
  • The cross has held a broad range this week with a slight upside bias – currently +0.62% w/w with the FOMC minutes denting broad risk sentiment across EM.
  • A busy week of political infighting within the ANC has come to a close, but factional posturing is likely to continue in the coming weeks as the ANC squares off with Magashule.
  • Zuma's imprisonment and moves against Carl Niehaus are both strengthening factors for the Ramaphosa camp, pushing RET sympathisers to the sidelines as he solidifies his grip on the ANC.
  • Public sector wage negotiations are expected to come to a close today with Govt performing better than expected in its fiscal consolidation push.
  • However, the R18-20bn in funding will need to be scraped from other budgets and how Govt will achieve this remains to be seen.
  • Over the weekend Ramaphosa is also expected to extend level 4 lockdown restrictions, further hampering the recovery trajectory.
  • PGM prices remain under pressure post-FOMC minutes, creating a drag on local equities & ZAR outperformance.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.2986, Sup2: 14.2277, Res1: 14.4404, Res2: 14.5198
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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