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USDBRL Looking Technically Weak, Pressure On Iron Ore

BRAZIL
  • Iron ore fell for the first time in nine sessions with analysts pointing out that Goldman Sachs warned that property weakness would likely be a multiyear growth drag for China’s economy. The steel-making staple dropped almost 5% in Singapore after the bank noted persistent problems in Chinese real estate, mainly related to lower-tier cities and private developer financing.
  • While this has the potential to weigh on BRL at the open, the greater driver for USDBRL may be the technical developments with the pair piercing and closing below key support of 4.8859, the May 15 low. A sustained break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and initially open 4.8000. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition and this highlights a downtrend.
  • Natural focus on the BCB Focus survey as the June Copom meeting approaches. Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto will speak at an event tied to retail development in Brazil on Monday. He has been reinforcing the view that long-term inflation expectations are still too high, calming market expectations of imminent rate cuts despite the sharp drop in IPCA inflation readings in recent months.
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