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USDBRL Remains In Technical Downtrend

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL’s break lower on Apr 1 marked a resumption of the technical downtrend and despite a corrective bounce last week the 20-day EMA at 4.8030 remains a key short-term resistance, which has capped the topside for now.
    • Comments from BCB Governor Campos Neto relating to analysing the most recent inflation print prompted a shift higher for local swap rates, whilst underpinning the Real.
    • As a reminder, recent rhetoric from the central bank had cast doubt over whether the tightening cycle would extend beyond May. However, with annual inflation surprising at 11.30%, forecasters calling for an extra hike at the June meeting have been emboldened.
  • Services sector volume probably rose by 8.6% y/y in February, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 9.5% increase in the previous month. National statistics agency IBGE releases report at 1300BST/0800ET.
  • Brazil Electoral Court Invites EU to Observe ‘22 Elections (Reuters)
    • It is the first time that the European Union has been invited by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court to be an observer in the presidential race, Reuters reports, citing the court itself and unnamed people familiar with the matter.
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