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USDBRL Resistance Builds Around 5.30/31 Highs

BRAZIL
  • 5.30 has capped the topside in USDBRL again today as markets attach greater significance to the level.
  • Multiple highs just shy of 5.30 are now providing strong horizontal resistance ahead of both the 5.3130 July high and the downtrend from the 2021 highs.
  • As a reminder, back on July 8, the BCB sold USD 500 million of swaps (announcement made when spot was above 5.30). This was the first intervention since the week of March 10-15 where spot was nearing 5.80.
  • USDBRL is broadly unchanged on the day, bucking the trend of overall dollar strength with dollar indices half a percent stronger on the day.
  • Any further dollar strength (EURUSD nearing significant level above 1.17) and potential breach of resistance may target 5.3839, the 50% retracement of the entire 2021 high-low price swing.

MNI/Bloomberg

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