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USDCAD Awaits Potentially Pivotal Jobs Report

CANADA
  • USDCAD has kept to relatively narrow ranges today, currently at 1.3744 off yesterday’s low of 1.3721 having pulled back from Monday’s peak risk-off high of 1.3946.
  • General recovery in risk sentiment has helped including WTI gains, plus an idiosyncratic factor from the WCS discount narrowing for the prior five consecutive days.
  • It has cleared the 50-day EMA (1.3731) which could open 1.3657 (Jul 17 low) but the pair is seen in retracement mode with resistance at 1.3856 (Aug 6 high).
  • The limited moves come ahead of a potentially pivotal labour report tomorrow after the BoC talked extensively on excess supply and signs of labour market slack when it cut for a second consecutive meeting last month.
  • This is the only main jobs report between the Jul 24 and Sep 4 meetings although we are still to get CPI on Aug 20. OIS currently has a little more than 25bp of cuts priced for the meeting.
  • Middling option expiry at tomorrow’s NY cut shouldn’t provide a strong bias either way: 1.3850 ($528m), 1.3750 ($525m), 1.3730 ($200m) and 1.3700 ($369m).
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