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USDCAD Back Sub 1.34, Option Expiry Offers NFP-Conditional Bias Lower

CANADA
  • USDCAD has held around 1.338 for a few hours now after the earlier decline linked to the slide in the USD index, a move that has shown little sign of retracing despite a reasonable paring of gains for Treasuries.
  • Strong gains for equity futures (ESA +0.9%) outweighs oil’s slump, attributed to Israel-Hamas ceasefire headlines despite questions over authenticity.
  • USDCAD is close to yesterday’s pre-FOMC low of 1.3359 (seen after a collection of yesterday’s softer than expected US data), after which lies support at 1.3343 (Jan 12 low).
  • US payrolls offers tomorrow’s main risk event, with CAD jobs not until next week.
  • Landing post-payrolls, option expiry for the NY cut could provide some downside bias, with a solid $0.9bn at 1.3315 (plus $0.3bn at 1.3320 and $0.4bn at 1.3345), with a small offset of $0.5bn at 1.3510.
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