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USDCAD Continues Decline After Largest CAD Net Shorts Since 2019

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has mostly headed so far lower today, nudging new lows of 1.3709 as it extends the move away from last week’s post-CAD CPI & Powell-induced high of 1.3846 that saw it firmly in overbought territory (and now an initial resistance level).
  • Beyond intraday lows, support is seen at 1.3667 (20-day EMA).
  • This prior move to overbought conditions chimes with latest CFTC data which showed another large build in net shorts on Tuesday (Apr 16). At -34.9% of open interest, the balance surpassed November’s low of -34.2% for the largest net short position since Jan 2019.
  • This partial reversal remains at play today more broadly, with CAD only behind AUD and NZD in top performers across G10 FX.

Support levels at 20- and 50-day EMAsSource: Bloomberg

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  • USDCAD has mostly headed so far lower today, nudging new lows of 1.3709 as it extends the move away from last week’s post-CAD CPI & Powell-induced high of 1.3846 that saw it firmly in overbought territory (and now an initial resistance level).
  • Beyond intraday lows, support is seen at 1.3667 (20-day EMA).
  • This prior move to overbought conditions chimes with latest CFTC data which showed another large build in net shorts on Tuesday (Apr 16). At -34.9% of open interest, the balance surpassed November’s low of -34.2% for the largest net short position since Jan 2019.
  • This partial reversal remains at play today more broadly, with CAD only behind AUD and NZD in top performers across G10 FX.

Support levels at 20- and 50-day EMAsSource: Bloomberg