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USDCAD Drifts Lower Again Pre-US CPI/BOC

CANADA
  • USDCAD is sitting just off session lows of 1.3245 (-0.25%) amidst a combination of crude oil near highs and the S&P e-mini holding most of the day’s gains.
  • Those factors help CAD sit solidly mid-pack despite the USD index drifting lower on the day ahead of both US CPI and then the BoC decision (+19bp priced) - preview found here.
  • A realization of a 25bp hike should initially provide support for CAD, but if guidance fails to live up to the hawkish rate path already priced, it could easily see the loonie come under pressure again.
  • Technicals suggest a bearish engulfing candle for USDCAD is still in play. It offers scope for a continuation towards a key support at 1.3203 (Jul 4 low) although stronger CPI or a dovish BoC could see a push closer to resistance at 1.3386 (50% of May-Jun downleg)/1.3387 (Jul 7 high).

Source: Bloomberg

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