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USDCAD Drifts Lower Close To Support With BoC On Horizon

CANADA
  • USDCAD has pushed to a low of 1.3415, at levels from early last week and nearing support at 1.3409 (20-day EMA) after which lies 1.3343 (Jan 12 low).
  • CAD outperforms most majors on the day as equity futures have modestly extended Friday’s large gains and oil prices have more than reversed earlier declines.
  • Latest CFTC data show a build in CAD net shorts in futures positioning, to -8.1% OI as of Jan 16 after the -4.3% the week prior had marked the closest to neutral since early August. It remains off the -25% seen in mid-Dec and almost -35% in mid-Nov.
  • Two very light dockets for both CAD and USD legs see Wednesday’s BoC decision firmly in focus. Unanimous consensus is for on hold at 5%, with focus on guidance considering market pricing only fully prices a cut with the June decision.
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