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USDCAD Extends Climb As Can-US Yield Differential Continues Post-BoC Slide

CANADA
  • After GoCs initially pared outperformance to Tsys, the Can-US 2YY differential has more recently pushed back to session lows of -36bps, a 6.5bp decline since the decision. GoC yields sit -2bps vs Tsys +5bps on the day.
  • The BoC rate path is only slightly lower, with BoC-dated OIS implying 15bp of cumulative cuts for April and a little over 100bps of cuts to year-end. CORZ3/Z4 meanwhile sits at -111bps vs -108bps pre-decision.
  • This relative rate backdrop, combined with equity and crude oil futures slipping in recent trade, sees sharp upward pressure in USDCAD, now touching 1.352 (+90 pips since the decision).
  • The swift reversal of what had been deemed a shallow corrective pullback sees the pair move closer to resistance seen at 1.3542 (Jan 17 high). Clearance could open 1.3608 (Dec 13 high)

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