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USDCAD Nudging Bull Trigger

CANADA
  • USDCAD is holding its push above 1.36 for now, having touched 1.3612 as it starts to test the bull trigger at 1.3614 (Mar 19 high).
  • Clearance here would set new YTD highs and open 1.3623 (61.8% retrace of Nov 1 – Dec 27 bear leg).
  • The day’s gains have been aided by equity net weakness, WTI reversing earlier increases and moving beyond some sizeable option expiry at lower strikes.
  • Monday’s expiry remains on the heavy side, with 1.3485 ($844m), 1.3495 ($601m), 1.3500 ($950m) and to the upside 1.3700 ($657m).
  • CAD isn’t alone in seeing downward pressure today, and in fact outperforms its high beta peers to sit mix-pack on the day.

Source: Bloomberg

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