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USDCAD Sideways Pre-US CPI, CAD Net Shorts Sharply Wider Last Week

CANADA
  • USDCAD at ~1.349 sits in the middle of the day’s relatively narrow 41 pip range by recent standards, with tomorrow’s US CPI looming large.
  • It earlier poked to a session high of 1.351 to stop just short of resistance at 1.3513 (20-day EMA) after which lies the bull trigger at 1.3606 (Feb 28 high). Nevertheless, a bear threat is still deemed present, with support at 1.3420 (Mar 8 low).
  • Tomorrow’s option expiry for the NY cut is limited in size, the largest nearby strike having some $486bn at 1.3475.
  • Latest CFTC positioning data showed a sharp swing from neutral CAD positioning back to net shorts of -11% OI the day ahead of last week’s BoC decision. It was the largest single weekly increase in net shorts since Mar’23 to leave overall futures positioning with its largest net short since early Jan.

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