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USDCAD Tilts Lower But Still Rangebound Pre US GDP

CANADA
  • USDCAD sees a quick move to the day’s joint low of 1.3616 with a nudge higher in the S&P E-mini, but remains within yesterday’s low of 1.36 and off support at the 20-day EMA of 1.3520.
  • There is some reasonable but not huge cumulative option expiry around current levels for today’s cut [1.3575 (574mln), 1.3625 (233mln)], but with US GDP more likely setting the tone first.
  • Earlier, the discount at which Canadian heavy oil trades to the benchmark could shrink by roughly 4$/bbl according to industry consultant Turner, Mason & Co. It could come within a year or so of the start up of TMX with shipping expected 1Q24.

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