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USDCAD Volatility As Technicals And Equity Weakness At Play

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News
  • USDCAD pulled back from a brief test of the bull trigger of 1.3846 (Apr 16 high) on strong US data to near unchanged on the day at 1.381 only to then quickly rise closer to 1.3820-30 again as US equity futures on balance extend losses since the cash open.
  • A firmer clearance of 1.3846 could open 1.3855 (Nov 10, 2023 high) before another key 1.3899 (Nov 1 high) but the pair is already flashing as overbought with the 14-day RSI at 70.6 which could dampen enthusiasm for further gains along with already historically large CAD net shorts.
  • CAD is outperforming high beta peers on the day amidst non-US growth concerns.
  • However, building on yesterday’s dovish BoC, some idiosyncratic factors help see some trend weakness against other major peers including further moderation in today’s vacancies data (down 0.1pt to 3.1% and below 2019 average 3.2%) and wildfires putting some oil production at threat.
  • EURCAD for instance, whilst currently back below 1.50 earlier touched 1.5024 for a fresh ytd high, building on prior clearance of downtrend resistance drawn from 2023 highs ahead of last week’s ECB decision, in another move closer to key targets of 1.5045 and 1.5113.

USDCAD tests bull trigger Source: Bloomberg

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  • USDCAD pulled back from a brief test of the bull trigger of 1.3846 (Apr 16 high) on strong US data to near unchanged on the day at 1.381 only to then quickly rise closer to 1.3820-30 again as US equity futures on balance extend losses since the cash open.
  • A firmer clearance of 1.3846 could open 1.3855 (Nov 10, 2023 high) before another key 1.3899 (Nov 1 high) but the pair is already flashing as overbought with the 14-day RSI at 70.6 which could dampen enthusiasm for further gains along with already historically large CAD net shorts.
  • CAD is outperforming high beta peers on the day amidst non-US growth concerns.
  • However, building on yesterday’s dovish BoC, some idiosyncratic factors help see some trend weakness against other major peers including further moderation in today’s vacancies data (down 0.1pt to 3.1% and below 2019 average 3.2%) and wildfires putting some oil production at threat.
  • EURCAD for instance, whilst currently back below 1.50 earlier touched 1.5024 for a fresh ytd high, building on prior clearance of downtrend resistance drawn from 2023 highs ahead of last week’s ECB decision, in another move closer to key targets of 1.5045 and 1.5113.

USDCAD tests bull trigger Source: Bloomberg