VIEW: ANZ: Board Getting Closer To A Pause

ANZ note that “the minutes from the March RBA meeting suggest that the Board is considering a pause in the rate hike cycle to assess the impact of the increase in rates to date.”

• “With labour market data recovering strongly in February (these data were released after the March meeting), and business survey data still strong, the focus between now and the April meeting will be on the February CPI and retail sales reports (due next week), as well as the US Fed later this week.”
• “Our base case continues to be for another 25bp hike at the April meeting, although this assumes that financial market volatility recedes, and that the monthly CPI data remains relatively high. Like the RBA we will, however, be considering all the information available as we get closer to the meeting.”