VIEW: ASB note that "September quarter data....>

RBNZ: VIEW: ASB note that "September quarter data showed a few cracks are

starting to appear in NZ's previously rock-solid labour market. In many ways

this is not surprising given the NZ economy has been in a slowdown phase since

late 2016. In annual terms, jobs growth has now slowed to a pedestrian 0.9%. To

be fair, at 4.2%, NZ's unemployment rate is still very low. And the details of

today's wealth of labour market data were probably a little stronger than the

lift in unemployment, on its own, would imply. Still, we think today's small

increase is the start of a trend higher in unemployment that will top out around

4.5% this time next year. This, combined with a 'neutral' unemployment rate of

around 4%, means the RBNZ has a little more work to do to ensure employment

remains around its "maximum sustainable" level. We continue to expect a 25bps

rate cut at next week's meeting and a further 25bps reduction in February."