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View Change: Citi: 75bp in November; 3.75% terminal rate

BOE
  • “With inflation likely to accelerate further over the coming months, we think 75bps in November is now marginally more likely than not, with terminal rate of 3.75% in February 2023. With fiscal support likely to keep coming, we expect cuts only from November of 2023, with QT now likely to continue for some time.”
  • “The policy summary also notes [the fiscal] effects would only be fully incorporated into the MPC’s decision in November. We see this as a warning that further acceleration may yet be on the cards.”

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