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VIEW CHANGE: Rabobank: "The risk of an accident has increased"

BOE
  • The “50bp hike will likely do little to reduce short-term inflation, but will definitely add to the mortgage squeeze in front of us. The risk of an accident has increased.”
  • “A majority of the MPC doesn’t dare to rely on models or forward-looking indicators too much anymore, and thinks it safer to set policy based on what they are actually seeing in the rear view mirror.”
  • “We will only get one inflation report and one labour market update. It is unthinkable that a June CPI print of around 8% wouldn’t lead to another hike. We forecast a 25bp move, but the upside risks are clear and likely to materialise if there is no improvement in the hard data.”
  • “Headline inflation is expected to decelerate sharply over the course of the summer – even as UK inflation has a tendency to defy expectations – and that may lead to softer wage and price demands. It also means that the urgency to be “seen to be doing something” slowly eases. We therefore pencil in one more 25bp hike in September, before a long pause.”
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