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VIEW: Citi Expects Inflation To Be “Stickier For Longer”

AUSTRALIA

Citi is forecasting that inflation will end 2023 at 5.4% compared with the RBA’s forecast of 4.8%. It expects food, rental and services inflation to remain high this year. If that is the case, then pressure on the RBA to tighten further is likely to remain over much of 2023.

  • Citi chief economist Josh Williamson said "Our reasoning is based on the fact that food and services inflation will persist in 2023, while goods deflation may not be as acute because of still-elevated costs for businesses."
  • Robust demand for services plus rising wages in a tight labour market are likely to support services prices this year.
  • Rental vacancy rates at record lows and elevated construction costs, which are expected to stay high given the amount of building in the pipeline, means that rental and other housing-related inflation is likely to stay high or accelerate.
    - The Australian
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