-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessVIEW: Goldman Sachs: Forecasting Two 75bp Hikes And A 4.25% Terminal Rate
Goldman Sachs note that “today’s inflation report showed further broad-based strength, and a jump in the average of the three measures of core inflation preferred by the BoC to 4.7% Y/Y. On the other hand, house prices have started to decline. We expect a roughly 10% correction because of low affordability from high prices and rising mortgage rates. As a result, we expect the homeowners’ replacement cost contribution to headline year-over-year inflation to fall from +70bp now to -20bp by mid-23. Put together with the firmer near-term data, we now expect headline inflation to peak at 8.0% in August (vs. 7.1% in August) but to fall slightly more quickly to 3% in mid-23. Following the BoC’s preparedness “to act more forcefully”, its view that the housing market moderation is healthy, and the recent uptick in wage growth, we forecasted a 75bp hike in July. We now expect an additional 75bp hike in September because we forecast 8.0% yoy for the July headline inflation print (latest available at time of meeting) versus roughly 5.5% in the April MPR. We also look for 50bp hikes in October and December, and a 4.25% terminal rate reached in January 2023 (vs. 3.5% previously). We expect growth to remain resilient this year at +3.2% Q4/Q4 before slowing to +1.9% Q4/Q4 next year. This is because the boost from rising oil prices and reopening should diminish at the same time as tighter financial conditions weigh on growth.”
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.