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VIEW: NAB: Employment Dip Looks Like Sample Variance, Doesn’t Move RBA View

RBA

NAB’s “read of the details suggests unusually large underlying sample variability looks to have weighed. In non-seasonally adjusted terms, employment growth was positive for the matched common sample underpinning the survey, but well negative for the unmatched and for the 1/8th that rotates in/out each month. Sampling variability due to monthly rotation ordinarily does not affect the representativeness of the survey and its estimates, but can be a contribution to month to month volatility when the outgoing rotation group has large differences in characteristics to the incoming group, as was the case this month. Hours worked (-0.8%) declined by more than employment (-0.3%), with the ABS noting an elevated number of workers being sick, while holiday leave taking appeared to have returned to pre-pandemic trends. For the RBA, today’s data is unlikely to change their assessment of the tight labour market and NAB remains comfortable with its expectation for a 50bp hike in September.”

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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