VIEW: Thursday saw TD Securities pencil "in.....>

RBA: VIEW: Thursday saw TD Securities pencil "in cuts for July'19, Nov'19 and

May'20. Making inroads into cutting spare capacity is the major driver for RBA

cuts. While easing in July or August should not make much of a difference from a

monetary policy perspective, we note Gov Lowe did not push back on the 70%+ odds

for a July cut that prevailed in the run up to his speech last week. As such we

now expect the Bank to cut in July. Assuming the RBA eases in July, bringing

total cuts to 50bps so far this year, our base case is for the Bank to move to

the sidelines to assess post-election moves in the property market and await the

Government's fiscal package announcement. The risk is that the RBA may be

brought back to the easing table again before year end. We had noted the

Australian labour market outlook was looking increasingly bleaker, citing NAB's

Capacity Utilization index as a reliable lead indicator for where the

underutilisation rate is heading. It was why we were suggesting a RBA cut as

early as the May meeting was a possibility as early as March."