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VIEWS: Bank desk views on the RBNZ MonPol......>

RBNZ: VIEWS: Bank desk views on the RBNZ MonPol decision:
- ANZ: With growth slowing & inflation rising, the MonPol outlook has gotten a
bit more complicated. We would emphasise that the RBNZ has the flexibility to
"look through" rising CPI to the extent that it is not exp. to be permanent.
- ASB: Near-term infl looks to be firmer, medium-term infl pressures appear
lower, with risks on the horizon. Exp. the RBNZ to indicate its clearly on hold.
- BNZ: There is a growing body of opinion that the softening NZ econ will
necessitate the RBNZ moving to a more dovish stance. We do not share that view.
From our perspective, inflation & inflationary pressures continue to rise & the
econ is at a point of maximum sustainable employment.
- Westpac: The RBNZ will probably repeat that it exp. to keep the OCR at its
current low level for a long while. We exp. a reiteration that the next move in
the OCR could be "up or down". The OCR f'cast will likely be unch., or perhaps a
smidge lower.
- TD: Some look for a delay in the 10bp increase from Q3 2019 into 2020, but we
don't think such a signal is necessary, and look for no change in guidance.

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