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Views since the new Chancellor (1/2)

  • Barclays: Look for 75bp in November, 50bp in December to 3.50% by year-end.
  • Berenberg: Still look for 100bp in November but now look for 50bp in December (from 75bp) to 3.75%. Look for 75bp cuts in H2-23 instead of 100bp to keep end-2023 Bank Rate at 3.00%.
  • BNP: "Risks skewed towards a 75bp move" (rather than 100bp previously). Revise down terminal rate forecast to 4.50% from 5.00%.
  • Deutsche Bank: Expect 100bp November hike with 4.75% terminal rate by Q1-23 with risks to the downside. (Had previously looked for 125bp in November).

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