Volatile TTF Pulls Back on Cooler Start to July

TTF continues to pull pulling back from a peak of nearly 40.6€/MWh on 20 June as warm weather across Europe falls back towards normal to ease cooling demand pressure in NW Europe during the coming week. Competition for LNG supplies from Asia remains muted as concern for tight supplies amid Norway maintenance has added to market volatility this month.

• TTF JUL 23 down -4.7% at 32.51€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2.7% at 49.56€/MWh
• JKM front month is down from a high of around 12.9$/mmbtu but TTF is falling faster to bring the JKM-TTF spread up to the highest since early June at +2$/mmbtu.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today at 224.9mcm/d amid ongoing field and processing plants outages. The works at Norne were yesterday extended until 1 Jul to add to the list of facilities seeing a delayed return during this maintenance period.
• Above normal temperatures in most of Europe are expected to fall back to near normal over the coming week where they are currently expected to hold into the first week of July.
• Total European LNG net import flows remain above normal despite a slight dip from a high of just over 430mcm/d on 16 June to around 380mcm/d on 21 June. Maintenance works will reduce sendout from Montoir LNG and Fos Tonkin LNG until 2 July.
• Total European storage levels were up to 75.06% full on 21 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 58.7% as injection rates continue just below normal.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.7mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 57.8mcm/d.