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Voting Ends In An Hour w/Exit Polls Expected Shortly After

SOUTH KOREA
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Polls close in for South Korea's legislative elections at the top of the hour at 1800 local time (0500ET, 1000BST, 1100CET), with exit polls expected to be released around 30 mins later around 1830 local time. The elections will detemine the composition of the National Assembly and decide whether President Yoon Suk-yeol will have a cooperative parliament that will assist with his policy agenda, or an opposition-led legislature that could continute to stymie administration legislation and leave Yoon as a 'lame duck' for the remaining three years of his term.

  • South Korean outlet Yonhap reports that turnout could be the highest since the 71.9% recorded in the 1992 parliamentary elections. It is unclear whether a high turnout favours the opposition liberal Democratic Party of Korea and its potential allies in former Justice Minister Cho Kuk's Rebuilding Korea Party, which have called for a mass turnout that could give the bloc 200+ seats (a threshold that could see impeachment articles brought against Yoon).
  • Alternatively, a high turnout could boost the Yoon-supporting conservative People Power Party, with the 'shy conservative' phenomenon not caught in opinion polls potentially being in evidence in the unexpectedly high turnout. Yonhap reports: "The PPP has pleaded for voter support, saying the Yoon administration has been unable to push its reform agenda properly forward for the past two years due to the uncooperative parliament under opposition control."
  • For more details on the election and its implications see our Election Preview PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-SouthKoreaElectionPreview.pdf

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Polls close in for South Korea's legislative elections at the top of the hour at 1800 local time (0500ET, 1000BST, 1100CET), with exit polls expected to be released around 30 mins later around 1830 local time. The elections will detemine the composition of the National Assembly and decide whether President Yoon Suk-yeol will have a cooperative parliament that will assist with his policy agenda, or an opposition-led legislature that could continute to stymie administration legislation and leave Yoon as a 'lame duck' for the remaining three years of his term.

  • South Korean outlet Yonhap reports that turnout could be the highest since the 71.9% recorded in the 1992 parliamentary elections. It is unclear whether a high turnout favours the opposition liberal Democratic Party of Korea and its potential allies in former Justice Minister Cho Kuk's Rebuilding Korea Party, which have called for a mass turnout that could give the bloc 200+ seats (a threshold that could see impeachment articles brought against Yoon).
  • Alternatively, a high turnout could boost the Yoon-supporting conservative People Power Party, with the 'shy conservative' phenomenon not caught in opinion polls potentially being in evidence in the unexpectedly high turnout. Yonhap reports: "The PPP has pleaded for voter support, saying the Yoon administration has been unable to push its reform agenda properly forward for the past two years due to the uncooperative parliament under opposition control."
  • For more details on the election and its implications see our Election Preview PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-SouthKoreaElectionPreview.pdf