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Wage Pressures Evidence Across EZ Feb Services PMIs


Details of the French and German services PMIs suggest similar inflationary concerns to Spain and Italy, with wage demands putting upward pressure on prices.

  • We will be watchful of February's Indeed wage tracker (usually released in the 3rd week of this month) to see if the PMI trends are corroborated in actual salary postings.
  • These trends will only add to the ECB's worries r.e. Q1 '24 wage pressures, and will likely be highlighted in President Lagarde's press conference on Thursday.
  • However, ECB-dated OIS contracts remain within recent ranges (~90bps of cuts priced through 2024), with today's PMI data not changing the narrative much ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting.

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