MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 3

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Wages Data Expected To Show Pick Up In Pace

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Today the Wage Price Index for Q3 is published which will be watched closely to see if it is still consistent with the RBA’s inflation target. Economists expect that it will be.

  • Given high inflation, the strength of the labour market and the shortages of available workers, it is not surprising that analysts and the RBA alike are expecting wage inflation to rise. Last quarter it rose 0.7% q/q and 2.6% y/y up from 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y in Q2 2021.
  • The Q3 WPI is forecast to be stronger again rising 0.9% q/q and 3.0% y/y. This is generally the expectation amongst those surveyed by Bloomberg but forecasts are skewed to the upside with five economists expecting a 0.8% q/q rise and four 1% and another four 1.1%. The upper end of projections is 1.4%.
  • Last quarter average pay increases in the private sector outpace the WPI at 3.8% y/y. This will be a series to watch.
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Today the Wage Price Index for Q3 is published which will be watched closely to see if it is still consistent with the RBA’s inflation target. Economists expect that it will be.

  • Given high inflation, the strength of the labour market and the shortages of available workers, it is not surprising that analysts and the RBA alike are expecting wage inflation to rise. Last quarter it rose 0.7% q/q and 2.6% y/y up from 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y in Q2 2021.
  • The Q3 WPI is forecast to be stronger again rising 0.9% q/q and 3.0% y/y. This is generally the expectation amongst those surveyed by Bloomberg but forecasts are skewed to the upside with five economists expecting a 0.8% q/q rise and four 1% and another four 1.1%. The upper end of projections is 1.4%.
  • Last quarter average pay increases in the private sector outpace the WPI at 3.8% y/y. This will be a series to watch.