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Wages Data & RBA Minutes Released This Week

AUSTRALIA DATA

This week the focus is likely to be on Wednesday’s Wage Price Index (WPI) for Q4 to see how much higher inflation is feeding into wages.

  • The RBA publishes the minutes from its February meeting on Tuesday. It raised rates 25bp but the tone of the accompanying statement was more hawkish. The minutes will be scrutinised for the reasons behind this change in tone and if a larger 50bp move was discussed.
  • The preliminary Judo Bank PMIs for February are published on Tuesday. The composite index has been below 50 since October driven by services. The series recently has been revised up in the final reading.
  • The WPI for Q4 prints on Wednesday and is expected to rise by 1% q/q again bringing the annual rate to 3.5% from 3.1% in Q3. This is in line with the RBA’s latest forecast and it expects it to peak at 4.2% in Q4 2023. An upside surprise to this data would be a concern, as may be signalling a move no longer consistent with the inflation target.
  • The Westpac leading index also prints on Wednesday and the last two months have declined.
  • Pieces of the GDP puzzle are out this week. Q4 construction data are released on Wednesday and is expected to rise 1.5% q/q after 2.2% in Q3. Private capital expenditure is on Thursday and expected to rise 1.3% q/q after falling 0.6%.
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