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Waller Eyes 75bp July Hike, But Upcoming Data Could Be Key To 100bp

FED

Fed Gov Waller, calling June's CPI report a "major league disappointment" in a speech today, says he holds a base case of a 75bp hike in July (vs growing market pricing of 100bp). But his comments also suggest Friday's retail sales data and next week's slew of housing data could take on additional importance:

  • "my base case for July depends on incoming data. We have important data releases on retail sales and housing coming in before the July meeting. If that data come in materially stronger than expected it would make me lean towards a larger hike at the July meeting to the extent it shows demand is not slowing down fast enough to get inflation down."
  • MNI's Policy Team full writeup on the speech
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