Waller Probably Leaning Toward June Hike

Gov Waller lays out three perspectives on the FOMC's options for the June meeting - hike, skip, or pause:

• Hike: "Based solely on the data we have in hand as of today, we are not making much progress on inflation. If one doesn't believe the incoming data will be much better, one could advocate for another 25-basis-point hike as the appropriate action in June."
• Skip: "If one is sufficiently worried about [the downside risk on the economy of credit conditions tightening], then prudent risk management would suggest skipping a hike at the June meeting but leaning toward hiking in July based on the incoming inflation data. "
• Pause: "Between policy lags and possible tightening credit conditions, the current stance of monetary policy may be seen... as sufficiently restrictive to move us toward the dual mandate. "
• His comments and hawkish-leaning track record would suggest he's leaning toward a June hike, but could be persuaded otherwise by data / banking developments - either way he's definitely not a "pauser":
  • "I do not expect the data coming in over the next couple of months will make it clear that we have reached the terminal rate. And I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards our 2 percent objective. But whether we should hike or skip at the June meeting will depend on how the data come in over the next three weeks."