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Watch The 75th Percentile For Fed Funds

STIR

Wrightson ICAP point out that the 75th percentile of the distribution of Fed Funds transactions dipped to 0.06% on Monday (per data out Tuesday) - "which was the first indication we have had that the range of fed funds transactions captured in the Fed's data might be drifting lower".

  • They write that today's data (for Funds Rate on Tuesday) should be closely watched, as "the odds of a downward repricing in the official rate this month are beginning to look better". Though they likewise caution that the 75th percentile dip could reverse.
  • This is being especially closely watched ahead of next week's Fed meeting - which some believe could result in an upward adjustment of administered rates in an effort to keep the effective Funds rate from heading too low. Steadiness at 0.06% probably isn't enough for action, but a consistent drop to 0.05% may well be.


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