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Weak Q4 GDP Data Add Pressure To Step Up Pace Of Rate Cuts

COLOMBIA
  • Yesterday’s Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations at +0.3% y/y, vs. a downwardly-revised -0.6% prior. This was also below BanRep’s +0.9% estimate as a double-digit decline in investment weighed on the economy. For the full year, the economy grew by just 0.6%, which was also below BanRep’s expectations, with Q1-Q3 revised lower.
  • Itau note that the faster than expected slowdown in activity may prompt calls to accelerate the pace of rate cuts, although with upside risks to inflation and elevated inflation expectations they think BanRep may remain cautious for now. Against this backdrop, it was noteworthy that Finance Minister Bonilla urged the central bank to speed up rate cuts, in comments made after the GDP release. This, however, followed more cautious comments from Governor Villar last week.
  • Incoming data will therefore be key, with the Feb CPI data on March 7th of particular note, ahead of the next policy rate decision on March 22nd. Next week’s calendar is light, with January industrial and retail confidence released on Tuesday.
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