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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The Feb reading for core PCE prices - +1.4% Y/Y, down slightly from 1.5% in Jan - may belie an even bigger slowdown in price pressures in the month.
- The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE metric, which excludes the most volatile price movements, continues to head lower: 1.61% on the 12-month reading (from 1.64% in Jan), and 1.37% on a 6-month annualized basis (1.44% in Jan). Those figures are the lowest since 2015, and compare to figures just above 1.9% seen as recently as September 2020. See chart below.
- While the test for higher inflation will come later in the year as the economy opens up from lockdown and fiscal stimulus comes through the pipeline, for the moment, price pressures are clearly headed downward.
- As ex-Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart told our policy team back in January (see MNI EXCLUSIVE: Fed SEP Must Show Sustained Inflation For Hikes on Jan 29), FOMC members will be looking at such metrics as trimmed mean inflation to help determine whether they are getting closer to their inflation goal. On recent evidence, they are not.
Dallas Fed, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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