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Weaker Fundamentals to Drive Next OPEC+ Decision: Eurasia Group

OIL

During the next OPEC+ meeting on 26 November, the producer group will need to decide on whether to cut output proactively to get ahead of the situation or to wait whether current price levels are proving to be a floor over the next two months, Eurasia Group said in a note.

  • Brent prices have rebounded to above $80/bbl but weaker fundamentals that are weighing on prices are still there, the note said.
  • There is some speculation on deeper cuts, but “with the prospect of even weaker fundamentals early next year, OPEC+ may want to keep its powder dry”, it said.
  • “The only thing that appears certain is that Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary 1-million-barrel-per-day cut into next year”, the note said.
  • “The group may hold firm while Saudi Arabia extends its voluntary cuts into 2024,” the note suggested.

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