NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 605; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 102

BoE Data Watch

RBA Data Watch

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Weaker Yen Weighs, China PMIs Next Tuesday

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

USD/Asia pairs are higher with weaker yen levels (post the unchanged BoJ) aiding broader USD sentiment in the region. USD/CNH is a touch higher, while CNY spot holds close to its daily trading limit. FX losses are fairly modest elsewhere but consistent. It is a reasonably quiet start to the data week on Monday, but on Tuesday China official PMIs for April will be in focus.

  • USD/CNH sits back around 7.2610, slightly above end NY levels from Thursday. Onshore spot continues to track very close to the upper daily trading limit, last around 7.2465. Today's daily trading limit is 7.2477 after the steady fixing earlier. For USD/CNH moves back towards the 20-day EMA (currently 7.2525/30) remain supported. Recent highs remain intact in the 7.2730/40 region. Speculation continues around a possible yuan devaluation. With rising metal holdings onshore cited as a factor around local concern on further FX weakness (our London team touched on this earlier in the week, as well as yuan weakness on crosses, see this link).
  • 1 month USD/KRW has firmed, unable to test sub 1370 amid yen weakness. The pair was last near 1375, around 0.35% weaker for the session so far. Some offset is coming from a stronger local equity market backdrop, but the Kospi's +1% gain keeps it within recent ranges. Downside focus for the 1 month we be on the 20-day EMA around 1366.
  • USD/PHP sits slightly higher in the first part of Friday trade, the pair last near 57.85. We are off yesterday's highs which printed near 58.00 (57.96). At this stage PHP is tracking as the weakest Asian FX performer in April to date, down around 2.8%, with IDR the next worst (off 2.2%). This weakness appears to be getting the authorities attention. Headlines cross late yesterday from BSP Governor Remolona that the central bank was prepared to intervene, if necessary, to curb PHP weakness (per BBG). This may heighten expectations that the 58.00 level is somewhat of a short term line in the sand for the authorities.
  • USD/SGD sits back above 1.3600, slightly weaker in SGD terms for the session. March IP figures were weaker than expected (-9.2% y/y, versus -1.5% forecast), which follows the softer CPI prints from earlier in the week.
  • USD/THB is relatively steady, last a little above 37.00. It remains down 0.50% in THB terms for the past week, the largest drop in EM Asia FX over this period.
400 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

USD/Asia pairs are higher with weaker yen levels (post the unchanged BoJ) aiding broader USD sentiment in the region. USD/CNH is a touch higher, while CNY spot holds close to its daily trading limit. FX losses are fairly modest elsewhere but consistent. It is a reasonably quiet start to the data week on Monday, but on Tuesday China official PMIs for April will be in focus.

  • USD/CNH sits back around 7.2610, slightly above end NY levels from Thursday. Onshore spot continues to track very close to the upper daily trading limit, last around 7.2465. Today's daily trading limit is 7.2477 after the steady fixing earlier. For USD/CNH moves back towards the 20-day EMA (currently 7.2525/30) remain supported. Recent highs remain intact in the 7.2730/40 region. Speculation continues around a possible yuan devaluation. With rising metal holdings onshore cited as a factor around local concern on further FX weakness (our London team touched on this earlier in the week, as well as yuan weakness on crosses, see this link).
  • 1 month USD/KRW has firmed, unable to test sub 1370 amid yen weakness. The pair was last near 1375, around 0.35% weaker for the session so far. Some offset is coming from a stronger local equity market backdrop, but the Kospi's +1% gain keeps it within recent ranges. Downside focus for the 1 month we be on the 20-day EMA around 1366.
  • USD/PHP sits slightly higher in the first part of Friday trade, the pair last near 57.85. We are off yesterday's highs which printed near 58.00 (57.96). At this stage PHP is tracking as the weakest Asian FX performer in April to date, down around 2.8%, with IDR the next worst (off 2.2%). This weakness appears to be getting the authorities attention. Headlines cross late yesterday from BSP Governor Remolona that the central bank was prepared to intervene, if necessary, to curb PHP weakness (per BBG). This may heighten expectations that the 58.00 level is somewhat of a short term line in the sand for the authorities.
  • USD/SGD sits back above 1.3600, slightly weaker in SGD terms for the session. March IP figures were weaker than expected (-9.2% y/y, versus -1.5% forecast), which follows the softer CPI prints from earlier in the week.
  • USD/THB is relatively steady, last a little above 37.00. It remains down 0.50% in THB terms for the past week, the largest drop in EM Asia FX over this period.