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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • There are two domestic highlights for us in the week ahead. The first is a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday at 18:00BST which is entitled “The policy landscape: structural change, global R * and the missing-investment puzzle”. There will be intense focus on whether Bailey answers the question of where he estimates R* to be for the UK, and whether he thinks that the MPC will need to raise rates above this level in order to keep inflation under control. Outgoing external MPC member Saunders (whose last MPC meeting will be in August) has said that market estimates of R* between 1.25-2.50% seem reasonable. Chief Economist Huw Pill has previously played down the importance of R*, noting that it is highly uncertain where the level is, and it was more useful as a concept when it was clear Bank Rate was clearly below R*. While Catherine Mann was asked at the MNI Connect event by former MPC member Jan Vlieghe why the MPC has not communicated its thoughts on R* and whether Bank Rate will need to exceed this or not. She said that there were a lot of difficulties in putting a number on R* and refused to be drawn on a level. Note that in the BoE’s Survey of Market Participants conducted ahead of the June MPC meeting, in response to a question asking for estimates of the neutral rate for UK Bank Rate the median response was 2.00%.
  • The other highlight of the week is likely to be the release of May activity data on Wednesday at 7:00BST. The median estimate for M/M GDP is 0.0%. At the time of writing, Nomura was looking for a -0.3%M/M print but NatWest Markets and Morgan Stanley looked for a considerably stronger print of 0.7%M/M. The index of services, IP, manufacturing production, construction and trade data are all due for release too.
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