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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • Outside of the two main events highlighted above, we will hear from Bailey and three other members of the FPC as they testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on Monday afternoon. We do not expect much to be said of relevance to macro markets. Cunliffe will then speak on Tuesday on crypto market developments. We will also receive BRC retail sales data for June and RICS house price data.
  • Politics will of course continue to be on the agenda, with the race for the new Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader likely to continue to dominate headlines. At the time of writing, Rishi Sunak was the most likely candidate according to betting markets while the odds of both Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss were shorter than 5-1. The 1922 Committee is due to meet today to determine the process and timeline for determining the next leader. There have been calls for a more expediated leadership contest than previously. Recent reports have suggested that the first round of the process, where MPs whittle down the number of candidates to two, could be completed ahead of the summer parliamentary recess (21 July). This would allow a six-week ballot of Conservative Party members to be held ahead of parliament returning on 5 September. A Times report has suggested that the first round of the vote will take place by the middle of this week with a threshold of 10-15% of parliamentary MPs needed, and a second round to take place, possibly on Thursday, with the threshold of support rising by 5ppt at each round – they note this could lead to four in the running by next weekend.
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