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Week Ahead

UK
  • Looking ahead to this week’s events, we are scheduled to hear from the BOE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill on Wednesday as he gives a speech on the “UK Monetary Policy Outlook” to the Society of Professional Economists. Note that Pill spoke on Friday at the NPR National Agency briefing and stated that “one shouldn't assume interest rate rises will be aggressive in the medium term." We would expect more of the same from him this week. Bailey is also due to speak this week at a TheCityUK dinner on Thursday. We expect him to stay pretty close to the script, too. It will be interesting to see if either member addresses the moves in markets since the MPC decision directly, or if they continue to point to inflation undershooting target if Bank Rate is 1.50%, citing the forecasts.
  • The only top tier data release this week will be the release of GDP and its components on Friday. Whatever this data shows, we think it is unlikely that it will influence the MPC in the short-term. If the data is bad it can easily be written off as Omicron concerns. If the data is good, it’s known that real incomes will be squeezed further, particularly from April, and so does not give an indication that growth would continue at a faster pace.
  • This week will also see the final gilt syndication of the fiscal year with the launch of the new 50-year 1.125% Oct-73 gilt.
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