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Week Ahead

UK
  • The week ahead will see the next flash PMI prints released on Tuesday, where the focus will be on whether UK PMI data is still holding up better than in the Eurozone and managing to stay above 50. The week ahead will also see the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium which is normally attended by a senior Bank of England policymaker – although this year’s attendance is yet to be confirmed. Friday will see the Ofgem price cap for the October to January period announced.
  • This afternoon, the DMO will hold its quarterly consultation meetings with both GEMMs and investors. Note that the DMO announced in the agenda that it was planning on transferring GBP4.5bln from the unallocated issuance bucket to add four extra auctions during the October to December period – one linker and one of each conventional maturity bucket. The timing of the green gilt syndication is likely to be tied down and is likely to be the W/C 12 September or 19 September (with the MPC meeting due on 15 September). A linker syndication is expected for November.
  • The most likely new maturity for a gilt would be a 5-year gilt, although as we argued ahead of last quarter’s consultation, there is no real obvious maturity gap that needs filling – the natural place would seem to be in the April to July 2028 area but that is quite close to the current on-the-run 7-year gilt which matures in January 2029. In our view, it could make more sense to continue to focus on building up the 0.50% Jan-29 gilt which could easily still see another 5-7 auctions, and to focus on other existing gilts.
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