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Week Ahead

UK
  • Last week’s MPC meeting provided little concrete guidance and left options open. It made clear that there would be further increases to Bank Rate but that the MPC did not believe Bank Rate would exceed 5.25%. As we noted in our BOE Review, market pricing was already back down to below 4.75% at the time of the MPC meeting, so this guidance actually provided very little of immediate use to the market. This leaves the path for Bank Rate very dependent upon upcoming events – we have September / Q3 GDP data this week but next week will be key for the December decision as it contains the Autumn Statement, labour market data, inflation data and retail sales data.
  • In terms of MPC members speaking this week we will hear from Pill twice tomorrow – as a panellist at the UBS conference on monpol challenges and then ahead of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee (where he will testify on labour supply). We would categorise Pill as one of the centrist members of the MPC, albeit with a hawkish tilt, so his comments will be interesting. On Wednesday we will hear from Haskel and Cunliffe (neither on monpol) with Haskel to speak on monpol on Friday. Tenreyro will also speak on Friday at the SPE Annual Conference.
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